A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
